User-friendly online dashboard for the assessment of the risk of African swine fever virus introduction, exposure and potential spread into the United States
The lack of accessible, operational, tools that allow the rapid estimation and update of the risk of ASF introduction and spread under diverse and continuously changing epidemiological scenarios, makes difficult to identify the pathways, areas and time periods at higher risk of disease introduction/spread (and its associated uncertainty) in a timely manner. Thus, it becomes an important barrier to better plan and allocate ASF preventive, early detection and control/risk-mitigation strategies in the US. In this project we aim to estimate the risk of ASF introduction and spread in the US through multiple pathways and generate an open web-based tool to facilitate the timely update of those estimates by animal health officials and other stakeholders. Specifically, we aim to 1) develop a quantitative risk assessment to evaluate the risk of ASF introduction into the US through multiple pathways; imported feed components, contaminated fomites, unintentional introduction in passenger cargo, international garbage and its inappropriate use for swill feeding, importation of contaminated pork and pork products, among others; 2) develop a spatial-explicit disease spread model to evaluate progression of ASF in the US once introduced, including the potential scenario of infection in feral swine and Ornithodoros ticks and; 3) develop a user-friendly open access online dashboard to facilitate adoption and quick update of the risk assessment and disease spread model of ASF in the US. Our models will be generated using open-source data and will provide risk estimates for the entire US and at fine spatio-temporal scale by state. Methods and results will provide valuable information about the current risk of introduction and spread of ASF into the US as well as an operational tool for DHS, animal health officials and other government and private stakeholders to easily update these estimates and timely support their decision making. This aligns well with CBTS and DHS missions to enhance supply chain defense and secure our Nation against ASF.
Duration September 1, 2022- August 31, 2024
Investigators
Faculty
Beatriz Martinez Lopez (PI)
Maria Jose Clavijo (co-PI)
Gustavo Silva (co-PI)
Caterina Scoglio (co-PI)
Products
Journals
Data
Supported by DHS. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this website are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the supporting agency.