Disease modeling for risk analysis of NBAF-targeted animal disease agents
The goal of this project is to develop data-driven spatial and temporal models for the spreading of ASFV, CSFV and RVF perform simulations in specific regions of US around the points at highest risk of introduction. We enhance the Generalized Epidemic Mean Field (GEMF) model so that it can efficiently and semi-automatically model ASFV, CSFV and RVF outbreaks by developing and implementing 1) a stochastic, spatial, network-based simulation tool with spatiotemporal granularity appropriate to the available data and the targeted area, 2) methods for the estimation of time-varying parameters and their optimization, 3) statistically rigorous approaches for stochastic simulations in the presence of time-varying parameters.
Duration: Jan 1, 2018 -
Investigators
Faculty and Scholar
Caterina Scoglio (Google Profile) (PI)
PhD Student
Products
Publications
Moon SA, Ferdousi T, Self A, Scoglio C. Estimation of swine movement network at farm level in the US from the Census of Agriculture data. bioRxiv. 2018 Jan 1:488767. (Accepted in the Scientific Reports)
T. Ferdousi, S. A. Moon, C. Scoglio, "Risk analysis of ASFV outbreak on model generated swine movement network in the US". [Submitted]