PICTUREE-Culex
One of the most dangareous disease that has thritened people in the world recently is West Nile Disease (WND) which is caused by viruses from the family of Flaviviridae from the genus flavivirus which generall is called West Nile Virus (WNV). It is a vector-brone disease that the main resevoir of it is birds, and the viruse is trasmitted by mosquitoes from bird to bird and occasenally from bird to human.
A decision support tool is needed to optimize locale-specific provisioning, alignment, prophylaxis/treatment, personal protection, vector control, and disease/vector surveillance resources based on estimated risk for transmission of West Nile virus.
Here we are developing an innovative and unique system to close this capability gap, the PICTUREE (Predicting Insect Contact and Transmission Using histoRical Entomological and Environmental data) logistical support tool. Estimating current and future pathogen transmission risk will reduce waste of limited shelf-life products and increase logistical efficiency to hub and forward areas. Planners will use PICTUREE software to determine a Service Member's likely current and future risk based on geographic location, the season of deployment, and estimated time in the country. Furthermore, the software will allow commanders to monitor in-country conditions to decide when and which products to (re)order and, following redeployment, medical providers can evaluate likely past exposure to help with clinical diagnosis.
This specific version of PICTUREE focuses on West Nile virus and its Culex mosquito vectors. Another version of PICTUREE focuses on Dengue and Aedes mosquitoes and it is called PICTUREE-Aedes.
This tool has two main components:
- West Nile virus risk assessment in space,
- Forecasting of disease transmission progression in time.
The tool will be based on the development and calibration of specific population models for mosquitoes and birds.
Duration September 1, 2021- August 31, 2026
Investigators
Faculty and Scholar
Caterina Scoglio (Google Profile) (PI) K-State
PhD Students
Products
- New Case Reporter, a Python-based program that employs the ICC-curve method to forecast the quantity of new cases. It has the capability to be executed for every state and county within the United States.
- Data-Informed Assessor, is a Python-based program that utilizes a spatio-temporal model to predict the probability of infection risk for West Nile disease in the human population.
Journals
- A Parsimonious Bayesian Predictive Model for Forecasting New Reported Cases of
West Nile Disease, Infectious Disease Modelling, Under-review after the second revision, 2024. - A real-time forecasting and estimating system of West Nile virus: a case study of the
2023 WNV outbreak in Colorado, USA, Submited, 2024.
Data
Supported by the USDA